Stories from UAE

The UAE's Energy Minister described a recent production move as a pure policy change following a review of current and future production levels. Al-Mazrui noted the UAE did not consult with other OPEC countries before the surprise decision. The US, Canada, and Latin American nations are forming a Western hemisphere alliance with production levels nearly equaling OPEC. This shift is described as a major macro trend affecting global oil dynamics. Simonov noted that the UAE is declaring current quotas no longer apply to them. He suggested this move could trigger a chain reaction and potentially dismantle the alliance. However, he also noted that the UAE cannot currently withdraw all produced oil, even within the framework of quotas. UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei stated that the UAE may exit the OPEC alliance.

Airlines are facing a kerosene shortage due to the ongoing blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. Infrastructure in the region, including areas near Jabal Ali, has been targeted. The situation affects major shipping and refueling hubs.

The United Arab Emirates' decision to exit OPEC Plus is expected to be welcomed by President Trump, according to reports from the Times. The group is also facing operational difficulties due to drone strikes on infrastructure. Before recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the production share of the UAE and other OPEC nations exceeded 10 percent. Expert Haydar Uğur noted the UAE's role in OPEC policy, citing its position as the fifth largest in reserves and fourth in daily production capacity. The United Arab Emirates is considering an exit from OPEC, according to reports monitored by Business FM Russia. Bloomberg estimates the decision may have limited immediate market impact due to US-Iran tensions constraining Persian Gulf exports. However, Reuters suggests the move could lead to a long-term decline in oil prices.

A research group from the US-based Centri revealed that leaders of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) accused of genocide in Sudan have purchased over 20 luxury real estate properties in Dubai. The report identifies RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and his close associates as the purchasers. The funds used for these acquisitions are allegedly derived from gold mines in the Darfur region. Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leaders are alleged to have made extensive real estate investments in various countries using wealth obtained from gold mines in the Darfur region. The report states that Dagalo and his family reportedly used income from these mines to fund these acquisitions. The RSF has been involved in a civil war since its uprising in 2023. There are also ongoing allegations that the RSF receives support from the United Arab Emirates.

The real estate index in the United Arab Emirates has fallen by 17 percent. Approximately 150,000 foreigners, primarily British nationals, have left the region. The decline is attributed to the heavy economic costs resulting from the Iran war.

Stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have experienced a $120 billion loss. This financial decline occurred over a two-month period. Additionally, 18,457 flights have been cancelled, which is noted as a impact for the aviation sector.

The United Arab Emirates stated it will continue its role as a responsible energy producer by increasing production in a gradual and studied manner. Energy expert Ayub from the Tahrir Institute stated the move is a political and economic message indicating UAE dissatisfaction with OPEC leadership and reflecting the state of UAE-Saudi Arabian relations. The UAE will withdraw from OPEC and OPEC Plus starting in May following a comprehensive assessment. The organization was founded in 1960 to promote the interests of oil exporting countries and stabilize prices. Energy expert Neher Ismail noted the exit could weaken the group and cause instability amid regional conflicts in Yemen and Sudan and an energy crisis in Iran. The UAE has been a member of the group since 1971 and was recently considered a key producer among the 12 members.

Approximately 100 oil tankers and 100 cargo ships have been waiting at anchor off the coast of Dubai since February 28. One observed cargo ship was reported to be empty. The situation may worsen due to ongoing regional tensions. Approximately 15 million barrels of oil are being stored in several large tankers in the Gulf. Some oil is being moved to older, decommissioned tanks in southern petroleum centers like Avaz and Asuriye. An expert, Hamit Hüseyin, stated that Iran is attempting to transport oil to China via railway. Energy expert Nihat Ismail from Al-Arabi TV stated that the situation creates a new level of problems regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil, and the Iranian situation.

The United Arab Emirates maintains a production capacity that provides a market advantage due to low costs. UAE production costs per barrel are reported to be half of those in Saudi Arabia. This cost structure allows the UAE to maintain market shares regardless of price fluctuations. The country's ability to manage production levels could influence global oil pricing strategies. This development could lead to a gradual dismantling of the traditional OPEC system by allowing countries to withdraw. Such a shift would benefit importing nations by potentially reducing prices through the fragmentation of production quotas. Analyst Omaïoun Falakshai noted that production quotas currently limit regional output due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Once the strait reopens, the UAE will be able to produce as much as it wants.

The United Arab Emirates is considering an exit from OPEC during the ongoing Hormuz crisis. These 12 countries collectively account for about 40 percent of global oil production.