Prediction Markets Show Varied Political Outcomes
Prediction markets show a 50% probability for a SCOTUS justice being confirmed in 2026. There is also uncertainty regarding the Republican nominee for Indiana Secretary of State and the leader in the CA-07 primary. Prediction markets suggest a 50% chance of 8 or more states redistricting by July 31. For Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, markets predict a 49% chance of running for Senate and a 48% chance of running for President. Other predictions include a 50% chance for SCOTUS justice confirmation in 2026 and varied outcomes for Indiana and California races. For the next French president, Bardella is favored with 48% of the market, while Republicans are favored to win the Ohio Senate race with 50% of the market. Markets also indicate a 49% chance for the National Popular Vote Compact by July 2028 and a 51% chance for Bores to be the Democratic nominee in NY-12.
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Sources · 7 independent
“Prediction market: SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026? (50%). SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026?: SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026? (50%) Prediction market: Shelton (50%). IN GOP nominee for Secretary of State?: Shelton (50%) Prediction market: Vang (50%). CA-07 primary leader?: Vang (50%)”
“Prediction market: 8 or more (50%). States redistricting by July 31?: 8 or more (50%) Prediction market: Senate (49%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: Senate (49%) Prediction market: President (48%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: President (48%)”
“Prediction market: Bores (51%). Dem nominee in NY-12 election?: Bores (51%) Prediction market: Democratic (49%). Nevada governor party winner?: Democratic (49%) Prediction market: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%). Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028?: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%)”
“Prediction market: Democratic (50%). Ohio Senate party winner?: Democratic (50%) Prediction market: SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026? (50%). SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026?: SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026? (50%) Prediction market: Shelton (50%). IN GOP nominee for Secretary of State?: Shelton (50%) Prediction market: Vang (50%). CA-07 primary leader?: Vang (50%)”
“Prediction market: Democratic (49%). Nevada governor party winner?: Democratic (49%) Prediction market: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%). Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028?: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%) Prediction market: Bores (51%). Dem nominee in NY-12 election?: Bores (51%)”
“Prediction market: Vance (48%). 2028 NH Primary Winner?: Vance (48%) Prediction market: President (48%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: President (48%) Prediction market: Democratic (48%). Georgia governor party winner?: Democratic (48%)”
“Prediction market: Democratic (52%). Ohio governor party winner?: Democratic (52%) Prediction market: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (48%). CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (48%)”
“Prediction market: 8 or more (50%). States redistricting by July 31?: 8 or more (50%) Prediction market: Senate (49%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: Senate (49%)”
“Prediction market: Democratic (50%). Ohio Senate party winner?: Democratic (50%) Prediction market: Republican (50%). Ohio governor party winner?: Republican (50%) Prediction market: SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026? (50%). SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026?: SCOTUS justice confirmed in 2026? (50%)”
“Prediction markets show varied outcomes for redistricting efforts and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's political future.”
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“Prediction market: Democratic (49%). Nevada governor party winner?: Democratic (49%) ... Prediction market: Bardella (48%). Next French president?: Bardella (48%)”
“Bardella (48%) Prediction market: Republican (53%). ME-02 House race winner?: Republican (53%) Prediction market: Republican (47%). Alaska Senate party winner?: Republican (47%) Prediction market: Democratic (50%). Ohio Senate party winner?: Democratic (50%)”
“Prediction market: 8 or more (50%). States redistricting by July 31?: 8 or more (50%) Prediction market: Senate (49%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: Senate (49%) Prediction market: President (48%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: President (48%)”
“Знания прочита прочитанные на свободе будет Слушайте голос Слушайте главы Memo мемуарной”
“Prediction market: Senate (49%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: Senate (49%) Prediction market: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%). Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028?: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%) Prediction market: Bores (51%). Dem nominee in NY-12 election?: Bores (51%)”
“Prediction market: Vang (50%). CA-07 primary leader?: Vang (50%) Prediction market: 8 or more (50%). States redistricting by July 31?: 8 or more (50%) Prediction market: Senate (49%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: Senate (49%) Prediction market: Bores (51%). Dem nominee in NY-12 election?: Bores (51%) Prediction market: Democratic (49%). Nevada governor party winner?: Democratic (49%) Prediction market: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%). Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028?: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%) Prediction market: Republican (48%). Ohio Senate party win”
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“Prediction market: Vang (50%). CA-07 primary leader?: Vang (50%) Prediction market: 8 or more (50%). States redistricting by July 31?: 8 or more (50%) Prediction market: Senate (49%). AOC runs for POTUS or Senate?: Senate (49%) Prediction market: Bores (51%). Dem nominee in NY-12 election?: Bores (51%) Prediction market: Democratic (49%). Nevada governor party winner?: Democratic (49%) Prediction market: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%). Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028?: Nat. Popular Vote Compact by July 2028? (49%) Prediction market: Republican (48%). Ohio Senate party win”
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