Prediction Markets Show Uncertainty on Carlson's 2028 POTUS Bid
Prediction markets indicate a 54% probability that California will pass a wealth tax referendum and a 50% chance that Trump will leave office early. Other markets show varying probabilities for political outcomes in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan. Other political predictions include El-Sayed as the likely Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan and Vance leading in the 2028 New Hampshire Primary. PredictIt markets indicate a 53% probability for the number of Trump truths between May 7-13 to be between 121 and 140. Becerra is also shown with a 47% chance in a potential matchup against Hilton for California governor. In the UK, Miliband is favored to replace Starmer as PM (47%). In California, a gubernatorial matchup between Becerra and Hilton is also showing close odds. A prediction market indicates a 54% probability that Bores will be the Democratic nominee in the NY-12 election.
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Sources · 7 independent
“CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%) Prediction market: Trump leaves early? (50%). Trump leaves early?: Trump leaves early? (50%) Prediction market: 1/1/27 -6/30/27 (50%). When will the House impeach Trump?: 1/1/27 -6/30/27 (50%)”
“(54%). CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%)”
“Prediction market: Trump leaves early? (50%). Trump leaves early?: Trump leaves early? (50%) Prediction market: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%). CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%)”
“Prediction market: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%). CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%) Prediction market: Becerra v. Hilton (53%). California governor matchup?: Becerra v. Hilton (53%)”
“CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%) Prediction market: Trump leaves early? (50%).”
“CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%) prediction market: Bores (45%). Dem nominee in NY-12 election?: Bores (45%) prediction market: Republican (48%). Ohio Senate party winner?: Republican (48%)”
“Prediction market: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%). CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%)”
“CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%). CA passes wealth tax referendum?: CA passes wealth tax referendum? (54%) Prediction market: Bores (45%). Dem nominee in NY-12 election?: Bores (45%)”
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